The Indo-Pacific has emerged as a key battleground in the global contest for influence and security dominance in recent years. As the region’s strategic importance continues to rise, so too does the looming shadow of China. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has accelerated its military modernization, economic expansion, and geopolitical maneuvering in the Indo-Pacific, posing what senior defense experts label a “grave and imminent threat.”
In response, Western powers have crafted countermeasures, most notably the AUKUS alliance—a trilateral security pact between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. However, internal delays, bureaucratic red tape, and policy disagreements threaten to undermine the effectiveness of this strategic partnership at a time when there is, as some argue, “no time to wait.”
China’s Growing Threat in the Indo-Pacific
China’s rise as a global power is one of the most significant geopolitical developments of the 21st century. Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has pursued an assertive foreign policy to extend its influence, both regionally and globally. The Indo-Pacific, home to vital sea lanes, key trade routes, and numerous security flashpoints, has become a central focus of Beijing’s strategic ambitions. From the militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea to increasingly aggressive naval operations in the East China Sea and beyond, China’s growing military presence poses a direct challenge to the rules-based international order that has long governed the region.
China’s behavior is increasingly seen as a destabilizing force for neighboring countries, particularly those aligned with the United States and its allies. Xi’s vision of a “China Dream”—which entails the rejuvenation of China as the preeminent global power—has led to military investments that dwarf those of regional competitors. China’s defense budget, already the second-largest in the world, continues to grow annually. The country’s development of cutting-edge technologies, including hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing, has raised the stakes, making Beijing an increasingly potent competitor in both traditional and non-traditional security domains.
The AUKUS Response: A Strategic Counterbalance
Against the backdrop of this evolving security environment, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia launched the AUKUS alliance in September 2021. The pact represents a critical shift in Western strategy, signaling the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific as a theater for great-power competition. AUKUS is structured around two main pillars: the first focuses on enhancing Australia’s naval capabilities through the development of nuclear-powered submarines, while the second seeks to promote advanced technological cooperation between the three nations. This includes the development and deployment of hypersonic weapons, AI, cyber capabilities, and quantum technologies—all of which are seen as essential to countering China’s growing military capabilities.
AUKUS reflects a shared recognition that no single country can confront the challenges posed by China in the Indo-Pacific alone. By pooling resources and coordinating strategies, the trilateral alliance aims to ensure that its members remain at the forefront of military innovation and maintain a credible deterrence posture in the region.
However, despite its promising framework, AUKUS faces significant challenges in its implementation, particularly regarding the second pillar, which focuses on advanced technological collaboration. The key issue lies in the bureaucratic hurdles and regulatory constraints that threaten to slow down the transfer of defense technologies between the three partners, undermining the alliance’s ability to respond swiftly to emerging threats.
Bureaucratic Roadblocks and the Delayed Rollout of Pillar Two
While the first pillar of AUKUS—centered on the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines—has attracted the most public attention, it is the second pillar that many experts argue is most critical to ensuring long-term security in the Indo-Pacific. This pillar is designed to enhance cooperation on emerging defense technologies, ranging from cyber capabilities to hypersonic missiles, and to foster greater interoperability between the armed forces of the three nations.
However, progress on this front has been slow. A major point of contention has been the “excluded technologies list” (ETL), a restrictive catalog of technologies that are subject to export controls and licensing requirements. This list has been criticized by leading Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Congress, including Michael McCaul and Mike Rogers, who argue that it creates unnecessary delays in the sharing of critical technologies between the U.S., UK, and Australia.
In a letter to President Joe Biden, McCaul and Rogers expressed their frustration with the slow pace of progress, warning that bureaucratic inefficiencies are undermining the spirit of the AUKUS agreement. The ETL, they argue, is not only out of step with the alliance’s strategic objectives but also risks stifling innovation and collaboration at a time when rapid technological advancement is essential for countering China’s growing capabilities.
“There is no time to wait,” the lawmakers wrote, stressing that the window of opportunity to act decisively against China’s ambitions is rapidly closing. They pointed to recent testimony from Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who acknowledged that the ETL was creating a “very cumbersome process” that could lead to “long reviews, overruns in terms of times and delivery.” In their view, the removal of as many items as possible from the ETL is essential for “unleashing AUKUS’ full potential.”
A Race Against Time: The Need for Urgency
The calls for urgency from McCaul, Rogers, and other defense experts reflect a growing consensus within the strategic community: the Indo-Pacific is at a tipping point. China is not only expanding its military footprint in the region but also solidifying its influence through a combination of economic coercion, diplomatic pressure, and strategic investments. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have allowed Beijing to establish a foothold in key countries across the Indo-Pacific, from Sri Lanka to the Solomon Islands, thereby shaping the region’s economic and political landscape in ways that benefit Chinese interests.
In response, the U.S. and its allies must move quickly to counter China’s influence and demonstrate their commitment to regional security. AUKUS is a crucial component of this strategy, but it will only be effective if the alliance’s partners can overcome the bureaucratic obstacles that currently stand in the way of deeper cooperation.
One of the key areas where AUKUS must make rapid progress is in the development of hypersonic missile technology. China’s military has already made significant strides in this area, with reports suggesting that Beijing has successfully tested hypersonic weapons capable of evading traditional missile defense systems. These weapons, which travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound, represent a game-changing capability that could tilt the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. If AUKUS is to maintain a credible deterrence posture, it must ensure that its members can develop and deploy comparable technologies promptly.
Technological Collaboration: A Key to Regional Stability
The success of AUKUS will depend on the ability of the U.S., UK, and Australia to collaborate effectively on emerging technologies, particularly in areas where China is rapidly advancing. Quantum computing, for example, is seen as a potential game-changer in the realm of military communications and intelligence. Quantum technologies have the potential to revolutionize secure communications, making it nearly impossible for adversaries to intercept sensitive data. If China gains a lead in this field, it could undermine the security of U.S. and allied forces in the region.
Similarly, advancements in artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are expected to play a critical role in future military operations. AI-driven technologies, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and autonomous naval vessels, are likely to become increasingly important for surveillance, reconnaissance, and combat missions in the Indo-Pacific. AUKUS must prioritize the development of these technologies to ensure that its members remain ahead of China in this rapidly evolving domain.
Cybersecurity is another area where technological collaboration will be essential. As the Indo-Pacific becomes more interconnected through digital networks, the risk of cyberattacks from state and non-state actors is growing. China has already demonstrated its willingness to engage in cyber espionage and sabotage, targeting both government and private sector entities in the region. AUKUS must therefore enhance its cyber defense capabilities to protect critical infrastructure and ensure the resilience of its military and economic networks.
The Geopolitical Stakes in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific is not just a geographic region; it is a strategic crossroads where the interests of major powers converge. The outcome of the contest for influence in this region will have far-reaching implications for global security and the balance of power in the 21st century. For the U.S. and its allies, maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific is a core strategic objective. This vision is based on the principles of international law, respect for sovereignty, and the peaceful resolution of disputes—values that are increasingly under threat from China’s revisionist policies.
AUKUS represents a critical component of the U.S. strategy to uphold these principles and counterbalance China’s growing influence. By enhancing military cooperation and technological innovation, the alliance aims to create a more resilient and secure Indo-Pacific. However, as McCaul and Rogers have warned, the effectiveness of AUKUS will depend on the ability of its members to overcome internal obstacles and act with the urgency that the current situation demands.
The Imperative for Action
The Indo-Pacific is at a critical juncture, and the choices made by the U.S., UK, and Australia in the coming years will shape the region’s security landscape for decades to come. The growing threat from China, both in terms of military capabilities and geopolitical influence, underscores the need for swift and decisive action. AUKUS offers a promising framework for addressing these challenges, but its success will depend on the ability of its members to remove bureaucratic barriers, accelerate technological collaboration, and maintain a laser focus on the shared goal of regional stability.
In a world where technological superiority is increasingly the key to military dominance, the stakes could not be higher. There is, indeed, “no time to wait.”