China’s invitation to Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, marks another chapter in Beijing’s complex dance with authoritarian regimes in Southeast Asia.
As Myanmar’s military junta faces growing domestic resistance and international condemnation, its leader’s visit to China serves as a reminder of China’s calculated strategy in the region. The visit, though low-key in diplomatic terms, highlights China’s regional influence and raises critical questions about its role in propping up authoritarianism to secure its strategic interests.
At a time when Myanmar’s military regime struggles with internal insurgencies, economic sanctions, and political isolation, China’s support provides a lifeline.
This visit underscores China’s broader strategy: to leverage its power in Southeast Asia to maintain political stability that aligns with its economic and geopolitical ambitions, even if it means lending implicit support to regimes that rule through force and repression.
China’s Calculated Relationship with Myanmar’s Junta
Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has been engulfed in civil unrest and insurgent conflict, with numerous ethnic groups and pro-democracy forces opposing the military regime.
Amid this turmoil, China has remained Myanmar’s primary partner, balancing between diplomatic pragmatism and support for authoritarian stability.
While the West imposed sanctions and the ASEAN consensus floundered, China continued to engage with Min Aung Hlaing’s government, albeit cautiously.
China’s actions reveal a dual approach. On the one hand, it maintains diplomatic ties with the junta to ensure continued influence and protect its economic interests. On the other hand, China exercises subtle pressure, nudging the junta toward eventual elections and partial stability.
This measured stance serves Beijing’s goal: to prevent a complete collapse of the regime, which would endanger its investments and create instability along China’s southwestern border.
This pragmatic approach emphasizes Beijing’s willingness to engage with any governing authority that can secure its interests, regardless of the regime’s methods or popularity among the populace.
China’s support has helped Myanmar’s junta withstand international isolation, reinforcing a regional model that prioritizes economic ties and regime stability over democratic legitimacy.
Myanmar as a Strategic Asset for China
Myanmar is geographically pivotal in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and broader geopolitical strategy. Sharing a long border with Yunnan Province, Myanmar is a gateway to the Indian Ocean, providing China with direct access to crucial sea routes for its energy imports and exports.
The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) represents an important aspect of BRI, comprising infrastructure projects that link Kunming to Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu port, bypassing the congested Malacca Strait.
In addition to trade and energy logistics, Myanmar’s stability is essential for regional security, particularly for China’s southwestern border provinces.
Ethnic insurgencies along this border, exacerbated by Myanmar’s civil war, threaten cross-border trade and impact Chinese citizens involved in business activities in the region.
Reports indicate that some insurgent groups target scam centers victimizing Chinese nationals, an issue China wants the junta to address.
For China, Myanmar’s stability is not merely a diplomatic concern but a necessity for safeguarding its economic and security interests.
In recent years, as the U.S. and its allies refocus on the Indo-Pacific, China has sought to solidify its influence in Southeast Asia, forming strategic partnerships that reinforce its regional leadership.
Through its alignment with Myanmar’s junta, China aims to counterbalance Western influence and ensure Southeast Asia remains within its orbit.
This strategy positions China as the primary regional power broker, capable of shaping the political landscape in its favor.
Authoritarian Support as a Strategic Tool: China’s Endorsement of Dictatorship
While China is cautious about overtly endorsing Myanmar’s regime, its sustained engagement with the junta signals implicit support.
This support aligns with Beijing’s broader foreign policy in Southeast Asia, where it has often allied with authoritarian regimes to maintain regional stability and sideline democratic movements that could disrupt Chinese interests.
China’s tolerance, and even endorsement, of dictatorship as a stabilizing force is not limited to Myanmar.
Across Southeast Asia, Beijing has cultivated relationships with authoritarian governments in Cambodia, Laos, and increasingly, Thailand.
China’s economic influence, political alignment, and investments often empower these regimes, consolidating authoritarian control in exchange for political allegiance or alignment with Chinese foreign policy objectives.
For Myanmar’s junta, Chinese support is invaluable, offering not only economic backing but also a degree of legitimacy amidst growing regional and international ostracism.
China’s approach reassures embattled leaders that Beijing values political stability over democratic legitimacy, a stance that encourages authoritarian regimes across the region to rely on China as a shield against external pressures.
The Role of the Greater Mekong Subregion Summit in Cementing Influence
The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) summit, where Min Aung Hlaing’s visit took place, underscores China’s focus on regional integration.
While the GMS summit itself might be a relatively low-key event, its strategic purpose in bringing together leaders from Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Myanmar cannot be overstated.
China leverages these forums to strengthen its regional influence and reinforce political relationships with Southeast Asian governments.
China’s role as the primary organizer and financier of initiatives within the GMS provides it with considerable leverage, allowing it to shape the political discourse in favor of policies that prioritize regional stability, often to the detriment of democratic governance.
By positioning itself as an indispensable partner for regional development, China cultivates long-term alliances that transcend political regimes, ensuring influence regardless of internal governance structures.
For China, the GMS is more than just a diplomatic initiative; it’s a platform to consolidate its presence and bind these nations closer to its sphere of influence, creating a geopolitical counterweight to Western alliances in the Indo-Pacific.
By inviting Min Aung Hlaing, China reinforces the message that it is willing to engage with any government that supports stability in the region, regardless of its democratic credentials.
Regional Responses and the Role of ASEAN
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), to which Myanmar belongs, has struggled to navigate the crisis following Myanmar’s coup.
ASEAN’s five-point consensus, formulated shortly after the coup, was intended to promote peace and dialogue within Myanmar. However, the consensus has largely failed, with the junta showing little intention of adhering to ASEAN’s guidelines for democratic reform.
China’s influence in Myanmar complicates ASEAN’s efforts. By maintaining its ties with Min Aung Hlaing’s regime, China undermines ASEAN’s attempts to apply regional pressure.
Beijing’s close ties with the junta effectively nullified ASEAN’s influence, weakening the association’s ability to promote democratic governance within its member states.
China’s backing of Myanmar’s regime thus contributes to a growing divide between ASEAN’s aspirations for regional unity and the reality of disparate political alignments.
China’s involvement in Myanmar illustrates the challenges ASEAN faces as it seeks to balance relationships with both China and the West.
For countries like Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, which maintain close ties with China, aligning with ASEAN’s democratic aspirations poses a risk of alienating a key partner.
The result is a weakened ASEAN that struggles to present a unified front on issues of democratic governance and human rights.
Democracy in Retreat? The Broader Implications of China’s Influence
China’s approach to Myanmar reflects a broader trend in Southeast Asia, where democracy is increasingly under pressure from authoritarian influences.
China’s role in bolstering Myanmar’s junta signifies more than just pragmatic diplomacy—it signals a shift in the balance between democratic ideals and authoritarian pragmatism in the region.
As China continues to strengthen its relationships with authoritarian regimes, democratic governance faces an existential threat.
The tacit endorsement of Myanmar’s junta may embolden other regimes facing democratic challenges, creating a regional norm where authoritarianism becomes the accepted means of maintaining stability. China’s support allows these governments to resist pressures for democratic reform, effectively creating an authoritarian bloc within Southeast Asia that undermines global democratic norms.
The erosion of democratic governance in Southeast Asia has broader implications for global politics. As China asserts itself as a counterbalance to Western influence, its support for authoritarian regimes presents a viable model for other countries that face challenges to democratic governance.
This model undermines international efforts to promote democracy, shifting the geopolitical landscape towards a more authoritarian-friendly environment.
International Response: Limited Options and the Role of the West
The international community’s response to Myanmar’s coup has been largely ineffective, with Western sanctions failing to exert meaningful pressure on the junta.
The isolation of Myanmar has inadvertently pushed it closer to China and Russia, both of whom see an opportunity to expand their influence in a strategically located nation.
With the United States and its allies focused on countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, Myanmar represents a particularly challenging scenario.
Western influence in the region is limited, and China’s support of Myanmar’s junta constrains diplomatic options for promoting democratic reform. For now, China holds significant leverage in Myanmar, leaving the West with few viable options to counter Beijing’s influence.
The Cost of China’s Influence in Southeast Asia
China’s engagement with Myanmar’s junta represents more than a simple alliance; it’s part of a broader geopolitical strategy that prioritizes stability over democratic principles.
For China, supporting authoritarian regimes is a means of ensuring that regional dynamics remain favorable to its interests. However, this strategy comes with significant costs, both for the people of Myanmar and for democratic governance in Southeast Asia.
As China deepens its involvement in Myanmar, it sends a clear message to other authoritarian regimes: political stability, not democratic legitimacy, is the key to securing China’s support.
This approach challenges the West’s vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, creating a geopolitical divide where authoritarian regimes find refuge under China’s protective wing.
The visit of Min Aung Hlaing to China underscores the complexities of China’s regional strategy. While Beijing may not explicitly endorse the brutality of Myanmar’s junta, its continued engagement with the regime reveals a willingness to support authoritarian leaders who align with its strategic objectives.
For Myanmar’s people, this means a prolonged struggle for democracy, as China’s influence reinforces a regime determined to rule by force.
In the long term, China’s role in Myanmar raises profound questions about the future of governance in Southeast Asia. As Beijing continues to bolster authoritarian regimes across the region, it risks creating an authoritarian bloc that stands in opposition to democratic ideals.
For the international community, addressing China’s influence in Myanmar is not just about supporting democracy—it’s about safeguarding the principles that underpin regional stability and global governance.
China’s support of Myanmar’s junta ultimately represents a test of the resilience of democratic ideals in a region increasingly shaped by authoritarian influence.
The consequences of China’s approach are likely to resonate far beyond Myanmar, shaping the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia for years to come.